Welcome to State of the Race: Pennsylvania, in which every Tuesday from now until Election Day, we look at the current state of the 2020 presidential race in Pennsylvania, thanks to polling from data intelligence company Morning Consult.
In the latest Morning Consult tracking poll, taken over September 4-13, Joe Biden is leading President Trump by 5% among Pennsylvania likely voters, 50% to 45%. About 2% pick someone else/another candidate, and 3% are undecided. This represents a shift from 2016 polls, where generally a larger portion of respondents were undecided between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Donald Trump ended up winning Pennsylvania in 2016 by 0.7%, 48.2-47.5%.
If you dig deeper into the numbers, Biden is leading Trump among 18-34 year olds (58% to 36%) and among seniors over 65 (53% to 43%). President Trump, however, leads Biden among 35-44 year olds (50% to 46%) and among 45-64 year olds (49% to 44%).
Joe Biden has a strong lead among female voters, 55% to 40%, while President Trump leads among men, 51% to 44%.
In terms of different areas of Pennsylvania, Joe Biden leads in suburban areas (49% to 43%) and in urban areas (66% to 32%), while Trump leads among rural voters, 60% to 38%.
Trump has a small lead among white voters, 50% to 45%, while Joe Biden leads strongly with black voters, 88% to 10%. Among white voters, however, there is a disparity, as white voters without a college degree go to Trump (54% to 41%), while white voters with a college degree go to Biden (49% to 46%).
Most party members are choosing their party’s candidate, with Democrats going 89% to 8% for Joe Biden, and Republicans going 89% to 7% for Donald Trump. Joe Biden leads among Independents though, with 44%, compared to Trump’s 42%. Joe Biden’s statewide lead can be accredited to the fact that Democrats outnumber Republicans in Pennsylvania by about 8%.
What may be most interesting is the small subset of voters who are switching sides compared to 2016. Trump is getting about 4% of 2016 Hillary Clinton voters, while Joe Biden is getting about 7% of 2016 Donald Trump voters.
The race has been relatively stable all summer long with a Biden lead, according to Morning Consult’s tracking data. Biden's leads have fluctuated, however, anywhere between 4% and 10%. Should be noted that the most recent survey is of likely voters, while earlier surveys were mostly of registered voters.
September 4-13: Biden 50, Trump 44 (Biden +5)
August 25-September 3: Biden 49, Trump 45 (Biden +4)
August 15-24: Biden 51, Trump 44 (Biden +7)
August 5-14: Biden 51, Trump 43 (Biden +8)
July 26-August 4: Biden 51, Trump 42 (Biden +9)
July 16-25: Biden 50, Trump 42 (Biden +8)
July 6-15: Biden 51, Trump 42 (Biden +9)
June 26-July 5: Biden 50, Trump 43 (Biden +7)
June 16-25: Biden 51, Trump 41 (Biden +10)
June 6-15: Biden 49, Trump 43 (Biden +6)
A note on Morning Consult's methodology:
Current state-level results are from surveys with 2215 likely voters in Pennsylvania conducted September 04-13 with a margin of error of 2 percentage points. Past 10-day intervals are with similar subsets. MOE and sample size may vary based on specific demographic. Morning Consult weights each state separately based on age, gender, education, race, home ownership, marital status, population density, presidential vote history and — for a subset of states — race by education as well as an age-by-gender interaction. Morning Consult interviews 4,500 likely voters across the United States each day. You can find more info at Morning Consult's 2020 election tracker by clicking right here.